The Planning Fallacy Is Why You’re Always Short on Time

A Hidden Productivity Killer

You’ve got a plan, you’re feeling confident, you think you’ve got plenty of time to get everything done...

But then, reality hits.

You completely run out of time and got nothing done. What happened?

This isn’t just bad luck... It’s a common cognitive bias called the planning fallacy.

The planning fallacy tricks you into underestimating how long things will take, and overestimating your ability to get them done quickly.

It’s a productivity killer... and it can seriously mess with your goals.

But here’s the thing, once you understand the planning fallacy, you can start to plan better and actually get shit done.

In this article, I’ll break down why we underestimate time and how you can make your plans more realistic so you can actually achieve what you set out to do.

What is the Planning Fallacy?

The planning fallacy is a common cognitive bias that leads us to consistently underestimate how long tasks will take.

It’s the reason why you set out to complete a task, feeling confident in your timeline, only to find yourself scrambling at the last minute.

How does this happen?

The planning fallacy causes us to misjudge time, costs, and risks, often believing we can accomplish more in less time than is realistic.

Let’s say you’re planning to rebuild the engine in your car. You figure it’ll take a weekend…just a couple of days to tear it down, replace the parts, and put it all back together.

But as you get into it, you hit a few snags. The bolts are rusted, parts take longer to source, and that “quick” job of reassembly ends up being way more complicated than you thought.

Before you know it, that weekend project stretches into two weeks, leaving your ride in pieces and your schedule blown.

That’s the planning fallacy at work…thinking you could knock it out faster than reality allowed.

This bias isn’t limited to big projects...it shows up in everyday life, from underestimating how long it takes to get ready in the morning to miscalculating the time needed to complete work assignments.

What makes it tricky is that even when we’re aware of this bias, we still fall into its trap.

Research shows that optimism plays a significant role here; we tend to believe we’ll be faster and more efficient than past experience suggests.

Understanding this bias is crucial. By recognizing it, you can start to make adjustments to your planning process, making your timelines more realistic and achievable.

Why Do We Underestimate Time?

We underestimate time for a few key reasons... and they’re all rooted in how our brains are wired.

First, there’s optimism bias.

We tend to view the future through “rose colored glasses”, meaning we believe that things will go more smoothly than they actually do.

This bias makes us confident that we’ll complete tasks quickly and efficiently, even when past experiences suggest otherwise.

Now me personally, I smashed this bias a long time ago.

I have a “realistic bias”. I know things can go positive or negative and I expect both. Try to live that way.

Then there’s memory distortion.

Our brains often recall the best case scenarios of how long tasks took in the past, conveniently forgetting the delays, distractions, and obstacles that actually occurred.

This selective memory leads us to underestimate the time needed for future tasks.

Maybe you fixed a buddy’s car in the past and it only took a weekend, so you thought you could do it just as fast.

Finally, there’s the focus on success.

When we plan, we typically concentrate on the steps required to achieve our goals, neglecting to account for potential setbacks or interruptions.

This narrow focus leads to overly optimistic timelines that don’t reflect the real world.

The result? We continually underestimate how long things will take... and overcommit ourselves.

But here’s the good news: by understanding these psychological factors, we can start to counteract them.

The next step is to explore the consequences of poor planning and how it impacts your productivity and stress levels.

Consequences of Poor Planning

Underestimating time doesn’t just throw off your schedule... it has real consequences that can ripple through your entire life.

First, there’s the impact on productivity.

When you underestimate how long a task will take, you end up cramming too much into your day. This leads to rushed work, missed deadlines, and unfinished tasks... all of which hurt your overall productivity.

Then there’s the stress.

When you’re constantly racing against the clock, trying to catch up, your stress levels skyrocket. This isn’t just bad for your mental health—it also affects your physical well-being and can lead to burnout.

Poor planning also derails your goals.

When your timelines are unrealistic, you’re setting yourself up for failure. You might miss key opportunities, fail to deliver on promises, or simply fall short of your potential. Over time, this can erode your confidence and make it harder to stay motivated.

And let’s not forget about the impact on relationships.

Whether it’s in your personal life or at work, constantly running late or missing deadlines can strain relationships. People might start to see you as unreliable, which can damage your reputation and hinder your success.

The bottom line?

Poor planning doesn’t just make you late…it holds you back in ways you might not even realize. But by recognizing the consequences, you can start to make changes that lead to better time management and a more successful life.

Strategies to Combat the Planning Fallacy

Now that we’ve uncovered why we underestimate time and the toll it takes, let’s talk about how to fix it.

The first step is to break tasks into smaller parts.

When you look at a big project as a series of smaller tasks, it becomes easier to estimate how long each part will take. This helps you create a more accurate overall timeline and reduces the chances of underestimating.

Next, add buffer time.

One of the simplest ways to combat the planning fallacy is to build in extra time for unexpected delays. If you think something will take an hour, plan for an hour and a half. This buffer gives you breathing room and keeps you from falling behind when things don’t go as planned.

Another strategy is to reflect on past experiences.

Look back at similar tasks you’ve completed and be honest about how long they really took. Use this information to inform your current planning, rather than relying on your optimistic memory.

It’s also important to get an outside perspective.

Sometimes, we’re too close to a task to see it clearly. Ask someone else—whether it’s a colleague, friend, or mentor—how long they think a task will take. Their input can help you avoid the pitfalls of your own bias.

Finally, practice realistic optimism.

It’s good to be positive, but temper your optimism with a dose of realism. Acknowledge that challenges and setbacks are part of the process, and plan accordingly. This mindset will help you create timelines that are both ambitious and achievable.

By applying these strategies, you can start to outsmart the planning fallacy... and take control of your time.

The BMM Takeaway

The planning fallacy is a sneaky bias that can throw off your entire game.

It tricks you into thinking you’ve got more time than you actually do... leading to stress, missed opportunities, and a constant feeling of being behind.

But now you know better.

By understanding why we underestimate time, recognizing the consequences, and applying practical strategies, you can start planning more effectively.

Break tasks down... add buffer time... reflect on past experiences... and be realistic in your optimism.

When you do, you’ll find that your plans become more achievable... your stress levels drop...and your productivity soars.

Time is one of your most valuable resources. Don’t let the planning fallacy steal it from you.